Northwestern @ Nebraska Preview

Who is Nebraska

The University of Nebraska-Lincoln is a state university located in Lincoln, Nebraska (that was probably obvious), with an undergraduate population of around 19,300 (i.e. about 2.25 Northwesterns). Academically, US News & World Report has them at 101st among national universities. 

How Did They Do Last Year?

They had a very respectable 10-2 regular season before getting crushed by Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship and losing to Georgia in the Capital One Bowl. 

How About This Year?

5-2 with losses to UCLA and Minnesota.

Recent History Against Northwestern

The teams have only matched up twice since Nebraska joined the Big Ten. In 2011, the 'Cats picked an upset 28-25 victory in Lincoln. In 2012, Northwestern lost 29-28 as Budzien missed a potential game winning field goal. 

Coaching

Head coach Bo Pelini is in his 6th year as head coach of the Cornhuskers. Tim Beck is in his 6th year at Nebraska, and 3rd yeard as offensive coordinator. John Papuchis is also in his 6th year at Nebraska, but only his 2nd year as defensive coordinator. 

Nebraska Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

With Taylor Martinez suffering from an injury, it appears freshman Tommy Armstrong Jr. will get the start. He has been very unimpressive in his three games played, as he has completed only 56.5% of his passes for 365 yards, 3 TDs and 3 INTs. This includes a dreadful 6-18, 3 pick game against Purdue. I would not be at all surprised to see Nebraska switch to senior Ron Kellogg III, who has completed over 75% of his passes without throwing a pick. Why he is not tabbed to start this game is beyond me. Fortunately for Armstrong, he does have talented receivers, particularly senior Quincy Enuwa, who already has 7 touchdowns, and junior Kenny Bell. Also expect running back Ameer Abdullah to get involved in the receiving game. 

The Wildcat pass defense, on the other hand, has quietly been quite good since the beginning of Big Ten play. Northwestern has allowed a measly 184 yards per game against their four conference opponents, while recording 4 interceptions. The safety play has been great and Matt Harris is excelling in his new role as a starter. 

Advantage: Northwestern 

Nebraska Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Cornhuskers have a scary group of running backs. Ameer Abdullah is unquestionably the feature back, as he has over twice as many carries as anyone else, and he has excelled in this role, picking up 981 yards and 6 TDs. His 140 yards per game and 7.38 yards per carry are definite causes for concern for the 'Cats. Imani Cross is also scary. His 334 yards are not nearly as impressive as Abdullah's, but he actually leads the team in rushing touchdowns, with 9. Terrell Newby has been impressive as well, running for 290 yards and 2 TDs, but he likely will not see that many carries in this game. Tommy Armstrong Jr. is also a running threat, but his 84 yards on 22 attempts are not terribly frightening. 

The Northwestern run defense has looked weak at times this year, but they found their stride late against both Minnesota and Iowa. Both teams have solid run games, but the 'Cats held them to an average of 156 yards per game and 3.47 yards per attempt. 

Advantage: Nebraska

Nebraska Rush Defense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Northwestern run game has been heavily affected by injury as Mark, Trumpy, and Long are all out, while Green seems to be somewhat beaten up. This figures to be Stephen Buckley's time to shine. Fortunately, Buckley has performed well as of late, including a 17 carry, 99 yard performance against Iowa. Colter figures to provide most of the rest of the carries for the 'Cats. 
The Nebraska run defense has been hit or miss, allowing only 62 yards to SMU and only 32 to Purdue. However, they got torched by Minnesota for 271 yards and even allowed 227 to South Dakota St. If Buckley finds his stride, and I think it will, UNL may struggle against the run. 
Advantage: Northwestern 

Nebraska Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense

Northwestern's pass game has been highly lacking lately. Siemian performed poorly against both Wisconsin and Minnesta and did not attempt a pass against Iowa. Colter is rarely given opportunities to throw. What kind of passing game we'll see from NU, therefore, depends on two factors: If Siemain sees the field much and how he'll look if he does. 
Nebraska has been pretty solid against the pass, even in their loss against Minnesota, where they allowed only a 47.1% completion rate. They are yet to see an even average pass offense in Big Ten play, however. Unfortunately for Northwestern, they have been solid at intercepting passes, picking off 11. 
Advantage: Nebraska

Iowa Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

Kickoffs: Nebraska has averaged 62.3 yards per kickoff, while NU has averaged only 61.5. Nebraska also has more touchbacks (64.7% touchback percentage) than do the 'Cats (40.4%). The two are covering kickoffs approximately equally at 18.6 yards per return to Nebraska's 18.4.

Punts: Brandon Williams has still been awful, punting an average of only 36.7. Nebraska has been much better at 42.6. The 'Cats have been better at covering, allowing only 4.6 yards per return. Nebraska is allowing 7.0. 

Place Kicking: Budzien is 13 of 15 on field goals and is still perfect on PATs. Nebraksa is a perfect 7 of 7 on field goals. They have however, missed 3 PATs. 

Kick Returns: Northwestern has averaged 22.6 yards per return to Nebraska's 23.6.
Punt Returns: The 'Cats have only three returns at an average of 7.3 yards per return. Nebraska, however, has averaged only 4.0 yards per return.

Advantage: Nebraska

Bottom Line

I hope you like run plays because you'll be seeing a lot of them. Nebraska's offensive identity is almost entirely in the run game, and they're not going to break from that. Northwestern's pass game has been virtually non-existent. While that could change, due to the 'Cats' shortage of backs, I kinda doubt it will.

Honestly, I could easily see Northwestern winning this game. On the other hand, I could easily see Nebraska winning this game. And I've learned by now that picking Northwestern is usually the wrong pick. So I'm predicting Nebraska to win tomorrow in a 27-20 game that will see fewer than 300 combined pass yards.